First Dispatch from the APA Summit on the Future of the Practice of Psychology
Ian Morrison of the Institute For The Future gave the Keynote Address on the morning of day one.
He summarized his theme as “The second Curve Meets the Flat World.”
One of is guiding principles, which he habitually violates in making his living was stated as, “Forecast beyond your lifetime, then nobody can tell you that you were wrong.”
Among the Big Trends he said were to be expected was that
old businesses are replaced by new businesses. The trick is to build the second curve so that at just the right time you can jump off the old one and onto the new one. Note that you have to be building the new business before you need it to survive. He emphasized that the old business should not be abandoned while it was still profitable, especially before the new business was actually more profitable. This strategy was presented as a metaphor for and business activity or product.
Who will want to be the consumers of the new business? The New Consumers, of course, are new because they want things differently from how the old consumers want them. An example would be the consumer of the new psychological services over the Internet, or via videoconference or iPhone API.
New technologies result in faster or better or cheaper things.
Emerging demographics result in new sources of change and new consumers.
Values
Freedom Democracy Peace Security Markets
Differences in Values
Government environmentalism etc
Demographics
Who are the newcomers? Age, wealth distribution, location, mobility, access, technology available, social cultural and governmental constraints on different groups.
Look at the quantitative depiction of these factors to help predict the future.
[He spoke of the rise of the female knowledge worker—it is an issue worth writing about]
Economy
In areas Dependant on state budgets, when things are bad states contract faster due to their tax sources.
Technology
Internet
Automation
Mobile Communication
Technology Diffusion Factors
drugs, sex and rock'n roll sell things and reveal future trends
Stuff not people first
Media accumulate
Privacy and security
Mundane over the cool
Better living that results through technology
Knowledge drives value: example is to calculate the price per pound for things [would that be the price per minute for service workers?]
Challenges
Gap between rich and poor
Brutal Competition
Dislocation
Higher Taxes Inevitable
Services and experiences are most important in the new world economy.
But you know, good marketing can't compensate for a lack of knowledge or tools to effect desired outcomes. Dissemination of FC would be an all too realizable outcome for a well marketed service economy bent on full employment and placing a high value on personal relationships. The real goal is to enhance happiness and well being through effective technology.
The game is not to achieve better reimbursement and more reliable precertification, but to achieve better outcomes more efficiently.
Find a role in the application of our technologies to prevention and to achieving better outcomes in working with other disciplines in managing complex problems. Better is enough, don’t require best before implementing change.
The second curve he discussed may pertain to micro products and processes as well a macro.
Interview young professionals about what they see as the future of what they will do, what they want....
Question: is the world post-industrial or have we let others take over industry as we played fantasy games in a bubble of consumption and socializing?
Notes From Responders To the Plenary
Only one participant was on the White House work group planning health care reform priorities. He spoke to us. Mental Health (MH) won't be a driver of priorities. Integration with general health services is a ways off for MH providers. People with serious MH problems in this country live 25 years less than others: smoking, access, diet, and poverty account for much of the difference.
There is still limited evidence concerning the use of new communication technologies in psychology practice.
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